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Consumers to Factories Point to Durable U.S. Expansion: Economy
Consumers and companies are starting to act as if the U.S. economic expansion is here to stay.
Purchases of new homes jumped in May to a five-year high, while business investment plansimproved for a third straight month, figures from the Commerce Department showed today inWashington. The last time households were this confident was in January 2008, according to another report.
A contractor cuts lumber while installing a staircase at a home under construction in Glenelg, Maryland. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, talks about the U.S. housing market and his "optimistic" short-term outlook. Shiller speaks with Sara Eisen and Adam Johnson on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers." (Source: Bloomberg)
June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Wetenhall, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, talks about the outlook for the U.S. housing market and homebuilder stocks. He speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)
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The data point to the self-sustaining expansion the Federal Reserve is seeking to nurture as rising property values boost household wealth and spending, while businesses invest in new equipment to meet growing demand. Stocks climbed, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rebounding from a nine-week low, as the figures supported forecasts the economy will overcome a mid-year slump and accelerate in the second half of 2013.
“It’s all good news,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “The economy is going to gain traction.”
The S&P 500 climbed 0.9 percent at 1,587.61 at 1:07 p.m. in New York. Treasuries fell, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up to 2.60 percent from 2.54 percent late yesterday, as the data boosted the case for the Fed to slow bond purchases later this year.
Builders sold 476,000 new properties at an annualized rate last month, a 2.1 percent gain from April, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey and the most since July 2008, the Commerce Department figures showed. The median selling price climbed to $263,900, up 10.3 percent from May 2012.
Builder Earnings
Lennar Corp. (LEN) is among builders seeing increased sales, orders and higher average purchase prices. The third-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue today reported second-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates.
Miami-based Lennar delivered 4,464 houses, compared with 3,222 homes a year earlier, while the average sales price increased to $283,000 from $250,000. Orders rose 27 percent.
“Against the backdrop of recent investor concerns over mortgage rate increases, we believe that our second-quarter results together with real-time feedback from our field associates continue to point towards a solid housing recovery,” Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said in the statement.
Values of existing properties are also picking up. Home prices (SPCS20Y%) in 20 U.S. cities rose 12.1 percent in April from the same month in 2012, the biggest year-over-year gain since March 2006, a report from S&P/Case-Shiller showed. The 1.7 percent increase in April from the prior month followed a 1.9 percent March advance, marking the biggest back-to-back gains since records began in 2000.
Housing Outlook
The demand for housing is driving residential construction and aiding the economic expansion. Consumers who long held off on purchases (NHSLTOT) are entering the market even as borrowing costs rise, encouraged by the increases in property values and gains in employment.
“The housing recovery is alive and well and has a long way to go, and higher rates aren’t going to choke it off,” said Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, who projected a gain to 475,000, matching the highest in the Bloomberg survey. “It’s given the economy, or will give the economy, a lot of oomph.”
Americans are gaining confidence as their biggest asset, a house, becomes more valuable. The New York-based Conference Board’s consumer sentiment index increased to 81.4 in June from 74.3 a month earlier, data from the private research group showed.
Other Measures
Today’s figures are in line with the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (COMFCOMF), which has been hovering around a five-year high reached in late April. American households last week were the least pessimistic about the current state of the economy in more than five years, the Bloomberg index showed.
Spirits are lifting as employment picks up. The Conference Board’s survey showed more consumers thought opportunities will open up in the next six months and an increasing share said jobs were plentiful right now.
Houses aren’t the only thing consumers are more willing to buy as prospects improve. Cars and light trucks sold at a 15.2 million annualized rate in May, putting 2013 on course to be the best year for automakers since 2007, according to industry figures.
The gains in spending, which account for 70 percent of the economy, are helping to bolster the expansion after government budget cuts took effect in March.
“Unambiguously, the economy is showing signs of improvement despite sizable fiscal drag,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. Among the positives “has been the improving labor market, but in addition, wealth in general has been rising, at least up until the last week.”
Early Cutoff
The Conference Board said the cutoff day for responses to be included in the report was June 13. Since then equities have declined, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.5 percent on June 20, the biggest one-day selloff since November 2011.
Growing demand for cars and trucks and gains in homebuilding are helping counter weakness in export markets, benefiting manufacturers such as BorgWarner Inc. (BWA) and United Technologies Corp. (UTX) Businesses may also decide to replace aging equipment, which will help bolster expansion in the second half of 2013.
Orders for durable goods, those meant to last at least three years, climbed a larger-than-projected 3.6 percent for a second month reflecting broad-based gains, according to figures from the Commerce Department.
Business Investment
Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment in computers, electronics and other equipment, climbed 1.1 percent in May after rising 1.2 percent and 1.1 percent in each of the prior two months.
Shipments of those products, a measure used in calculating gross domestic product, rose 1.7 percent, the biggest gain since November.
“This is the missing piece for an upswing in economic activity,” said Millan Mulraine, director of U.S. rates research at TD Securities USA LLC in New York. “Business capital investment activity is off to a strong showing. If businesses start investing, they’ll add to their workforce.”
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that the central bank may begin to pare its $85 billion in monthly asset purchases this year if the economy performs as policy makers forecast. The process could be completed by mid-2014, by which time the jobless rate will probably have dropped to around 7 percent, he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Lorraine Woellert in Washingtonlwoellert@bloomberg.net; Jeanna Smialek in Washington at jsmialek1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net
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Consumer Confidence in U.S. Increases More Than Forecast
By Alexandria Baca - Jun 25, 2013 8:10 AM PT of iransaraf archive
www.sekenews.blogsky.com
Confidence among U.S. consumers climbed in June to the highest level in more than five years, an indication spending will probably accelerate after cooling this quarter.
The Conference Board’s index rose to 81.4, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey and the highest since January 2008, from a revised 74.3 in May, data from the New York-based private research group showed today. The median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a reading of 75.1.
A woman looks at bags inside a Prada SpA store in the SOHO neighborhood of New York. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg
June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, talks about the U.S. housing market and his "optimistic" short-term outlook. Shiller speaks with Sara Eisen and Adam Johnson on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers." (Source: Bloomberg)
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Rising residential property values and stock prices, combined with gains in employment, have spurred demand for housing and automobiles as households gain confidence the expansion will be sustained. Nonetheless, the recent slump in shares and surge in interest rates pose a risk to sentiment should hiring also suffer.
“Unambiguously, the economy is showing signs of improvement despite sizable fiscal drag,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla,New York, who is the top-ranked forecaster of confidence in the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Among the positives “has been the improving labor market, but in addition, wealth in general has been rising, at least up until the last week.”
Forecasts in the Bloomberg survey of economists ranged from 72 to 79.5 after a previously reported 76.2 in May. The measure averaged 53.7 in the recession that ended in June 2009.
The Conference Board said the cutoff day for responses to be included in the report was June 13. Since then equities have declined.
Stocks held gains after the figures, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounding from a nine-week low. The S&P 500 rose 0.9 percent to 1,586.91 at 11:08 a.m. in New York.
Other Data
Other figures today showed home prices, new-home sales and durable goods orders climbed more than forecast.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 12.1 percent the 12 months ended in April, the biggest year-over-year gain since March 2006, after advancing 10.9 percent a month earlier. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 28 economists called for a 10.6 percent advance.
Sales of new homes rose to the highest level in almost five years, the Commerce Department said. Purchases increased 2.1 percent to an annualized pace of 476,000 homes, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey and the most since July 2008.
Durable Goods
Bookings (DGNOCHNG) for goods meant to last at least three years increased 3.6 percent for a second month in May, according to the Commerce Department. Economists estimated a 3 percent gain, according to the Bloomberg survey median. Demand excluding transportation equipment, which is volatile month to month, rose 0.7 percent, also topping projections.
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer present conditions rose to 69.2 in June, the highest in five years, from 64.8 in May. The measure of expectations for the next six months climbed to 89.5 this month, the strongest reading since February 2011, from 80.6.
Today’s figures are in line with the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (COMFCOMF), which has been hovering around a five-year high reached in late April. American households last week were the least pessimistic about the current state of the economy in more than five years, the Bloomberg index showed.
The share of consumers expecting more jobs to open up in the next six months climbed to an eight-month high of 19.6 percent in June from 16.3 percent in May.
Jobs Plentiful
The number of respondents who said jobs are currently plentiful increased to 11.7 percent in June, the highest since September 2008, from 9.9 percent.
Those expecting business conditions to improve in the next six months rose to a seven-month high of 20.3 percent in June from 18.7 percent the prior month.
“Consumers are considerably more positive about current business and labor market conditions than they were at the beginning of the year,” Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “Expectations have also improved considerably over the past several months, suggesting that the pace of growth is unlikely to slow in the short-term, and may even moderately pick up.”
The Kroger Co. (KR), a supermarket and convenience store chain based in Cincinnati, says it’s keeping an eye on how the economy, gas prices, taxes and political uncertainty affect consumer optimism.
‘Better Economy’
“While there are signs of a better economy, the improvement is not robust,” said David B. Dillon, the chairman and chief executive officer in a June 20 earnings call. “Consumer sentiment is gradually improving, but remains fragile. We continue to see high variability in sales comparisons between days and weeks.”
Household spending in the first quarter increased at a 3.4 percent annualized rate, the biggest gain since the fourth quarter of 2010, Commerce Department figures showed May 30. That helped gross domestic product grow at a 2.4 percent during the three months.
The economy is projected to expand at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg economist survey from June 7 to June 12. Consumer spending is projected to grow at a 1.9 percent pace, based on the survey median.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexandria Baca in Washington at Abaca3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net
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Tuesday June 25, 2013 2:13 PM of iransaraf archive
www.sekenews.blogsky.com
Kitco News - Comex gold prices ended the U.S. day session with mild losses Tuesday. Some short covering was featured early on in the session, but then some better U.S. economic data boosted the U.S. dollar index, which in turn put some downside price pressure on gold. Technical chart consolidation was seen on the day, following recent selling pressure that last week drove gold and silver prices to a 2.5-year low. The gold and silver market bears remain in firm technical command. Comex August gold was last down $2.00 at $1,275.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $6.60 at $1,276.50. July Comex silver last traded up $0.322 at $19.525 an ounce.
There was a bit more risk appetite in the world market place Tuesday, partly due to news China central bank officials said the cash crunch in China has been brought under control and the recent volatility in its financial markets was just temporary. Worries the financial system in the world’s second-largest economy could seize up had the entire world market place jittery the past few days.
News that several officials of the major central banks of the world in the past 36 hours made more dovish remarks on their monetary policies also eased some trader and investor anxieties after last week’s hawkishly perceived FOMC meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The U.S. dollar index was firmer Tuesday on the better U.S. economic data. The greenback bulls have technical momentum on their side, and that’s suggestive of more upside for the dollar, and it’s also bearish for the precious metals.
The London P.M. gold fixing is $1,279.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,286.75.
Technically, August gold futures prices closed nearer the session low Tuesday. Prices are still hovering near last week’s 2.5-year low. A bear flag or bearish pennant pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. The gold bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an eight-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the May low of $1,338.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $1,289.00 and then at this week’s high of $1,300.70. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,268.70 and then at $1,260.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 1.0
July silver futures prices closed near mid-range Tuesday and are hovering near last week’s 2.5-year low. Silver bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an eight-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April low of $21.12 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $20.175 and then at the May low of $20.25. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $19.31 and then at $19.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.
July N.Y. copper closed up 385 points at 306.30 cents Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session high and did hit a fresh contract low early on. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Copper bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 320.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 290.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 309.50 cents and then at 313.80 cents. First support is seen at 300.00 cents and then at Tuesday’s contract low of 298.35 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.
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By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com